Australia is one of the world’s largest wine exporters, with about two-thirds of Australian wine production being exported and major export markets including Canada, China, the European Union, Hong Kong, New Zealand and the United States.[1]
According to ABARES, the value of Australian wine exports is projected to peak in 2017–18 before declining because of increased competition from Chile, Argentina and South Africa. 1
Canstar notes that a 3.3% decline in global wine production should see the value of Australian wine exports rise by 5% to $2.5 billion. [2]
China is forecast to overtake the US to become Australia’s largest wine export market with the China–Australia Free Trade Agreement resulting in tariffs on Australian wine falling to zero by January 2019.1
The effect of Brexit on Australian wine exports over the medium term is uncertain. 1
ABARES notes that competition for the Chinese market from major exporters is expected to be particularly strong and lead to the value of Australian exports to China falling in real terms from 2018–2019 onwards.1
[1] ABARES 2017, Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2017. CC BY 3.0
[2] Canstar website report: Agriculture Industry Outlook for 2017-2018
